Abstract:

By applying grey GM(1,1) forecasting model and other approaches, this article makes a prediction on the demand quantity of preschool education resources as well as the spatial and temporal distribution change in China’s four major regions under the background of “Universal Two-Child” policy. On the basis of the investigation of regional preschool education resources stock, this article indicates the conflict change of supply and demand of regional preschool education resources under the background of “Universal Two-Child” policy, so as to propose corresponding policy suggestion. Research shows that under the background of “Universal Two-Child” policy, the number of preschool children in the region presents an inverted “U” curve distribution, which goes up first and then drops down; but there is a certain imbalance between the supply and demand of preschool education resources among the four regions, existing a clear tendency of “central collapse”. Therefore, on the one hand, we have to realize the pressure brought to preschool children by the “Universal Two-Child” policy, and we should expand the school resources through various ways; short plate of the resource supply in central region should be made up, so as to promote the coordinated development of regional preschool education. On the other hand, we should also be clearly aware of the potential influence brought by the decline in the number of preschool children after the admission peak of “Universal Two-Child”, and adopt the necessary emergency intervention policies to ensure the stability and sustainable development of preschool education.

Key words: “Universal Two-Child” policy, regional preschool education, preschool education resources, grey forecast model