Abstract:

Clarifying the size of the future preschool-age population and understanding the trend of population changes are conducive to the rational planning and scientific supply of educational resources. Based on the preschool-age population from the 7th National Census data,the cohort-component method was applied, and PADIS-INT software was used to build the model, for the population projections. The projection shows that the total population of Chinese preschool-age will decrease from 41.46 million to approximately 25.84 million from 2023 to 2035. The preschool-age population will decline rapidly after 2023, and will gradually stabilize from 2028. The changing trend in the size of the preschool-age population has put forward new requirements for the adaptability and effectiveness of educational resource supply. Based on this, the information integration, dynamic monitoring and scientific prediction between population changes and educational resource supply should be strengthened, and education planning should be reasonably adjusted to adapt to the population size, so as to effectively respond to the changes of “quantity” and “quality” in education supply demand, and optimize the “quality” of supply while ensuring the“quantity”of preschool education resource supply, making the supply of educational resources efficient, high-quality and balanced.

Key words: preschool education, educational resource supply, population projections