教育科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 79-85.

• 学期教育研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

学前适龄人口规模与教育资源供给预测研究*——基于第七次全国人口普查数据

李德显, 刘昭晨   

  1. 辽宁师范大学 教育学部,辽宁 大连 116029
  • 出版日期:2023-11-15 发布日期:2024-03-06
  • 作者简介:李德显(1966- ),男,吉林九台人,辽宁师范大学教育学部教授,博士生导师,主要从事教育社会学研究;|刘昭晨(1995- ),女,吉林长春人,辽宁师范大学教育学部博士生,主要从事教育社会学研究。
  • 基金资助:
    * 2023年度教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“我国学前教育发展指数构建、区域差异及优化策略研究”(23YJA880015)

Forecast Research on the Preschool-Age Population Size and Educational Resources Supply: Based on the Seventh National Population Census Data

Li Dexian, Liu Zhaochen   

  1. Faculty of Education,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian Liaoning 116029,China
  • Online:2023-11-15 Published:2024-03-06

摘要:

明确未来学前适龄人口的规模,了解人口变动趋势,有利于教育资源的合理规划和科学供给。基于第七次全国人口普查数据的学前适龄人口预测研究,采用了队列要素法,并使用PADIS-INT软件建立模型。从预测结果来看,2023年至2035年我国学前适龄人口的整体规模将从4 146万人减少至约2 584万人。2023年之后学前适龄人口将出现快速减少的趋势,从2028年开始人口变动渐趋平稳。学前适龄人口规模的变动趋势对教育资源供给的适应性和有效性提出了新的要求。基于此,我们应加强人口变动与教育资源供给之间的信息交融,加强对二者的动态监测和科学预测,合理调整教育规划以与人口规模相适应,才能有效应对教育供给需求中“量”与“质”的关系转变,从而在保障学前教育资源供给“数量”的同时优化供给“质量”,使教育资源供给高效、优质且均衡。

关键词: 学前教育, 教育资源供给, 人口预测

Abstract:

Clarifying the size of the future preschool-age population and understanding the trend of population changes are conducive to the rational planning and scientific supply of educational resources. Based on the preschool-age population from the 7th National Census data,the cohort-component method was applied, and PADIS-INT software was used to build the model, for the population projections. The projection shows that the total population of Chinese preschool-age will decrease from 41.46 million to approximately 25.84 million from 2023 to 2035. The preschool-age population will decline rapidly after 2023, and will gradually stabilize from 2028. The changing trend in the size of the preschool-age population has put forward new requirements for the adaptability and effectiveness of educational resource supply. Based on this, the information integration, dynamic monitoring and scientific prediction between population changes and educational resource supply should be strengthened, and education planning should be reasonably adjusted to adapt to the population size, so as to effectively respond to the changes of “quantity” and “quality” in education supply demand, and optimize the “quality” of supply while ensuring the“quantity”of preschool education resource supply, making the supply of educational resources efficient, high-quality and balanced.

Key words: preschool education, educational resource supply, population projections

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