教育科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 62-71.

• 学前教育研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

“全面二孩”背景下区域学前教育资源供需格局及其应对*

郑益乐, 史文秀   

  1. 宝鸡文理学院 教育学院,陕西 宝鸡 721013
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-28 出版日期:2019-03-15 发布日期:2021-06-30
  • 作者简介:郑益乐(1981- ),男,甘肃庆阳人,宝鸡文理学院教育学院副教授,教育学硕士,硕士生导师,主要研究方向为学前教育政策;|史文秀(1985- ),女,山东聊城人,宝鸡文理学院教育学院讲师,教育学硕士,主要研究方向为学前教育经济与管理。
  • 基金资助:
    *本文系全国教育科学“十三五”规划2017年度教育部青年课题“‘全面二孩’背景下我国学前教育资源供需状况及其应对策略研究”的研究成果(EHA170456)

Supply-and-Demand Pattern of Regional Preschool Education Resources and its Countermeasures under the Background of “Universal Two-Child” Policy

Zheng Yile, Shi Wenxiu   

  1. School of Education, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, China
  • Received:2019-01-28 Online:2019-03-15 Published:2021-06-30

摘要:

运用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型等方法,对“全面二孩”背景下我国四大区域学前教育学位需求数量及其时空分布变化进行预测,并在考察区域学前教育资源存量的基础上,揭示“全面二孩”背景下区域学前教育资源的供需矛盾变化,从而提出相应的政策建议。运用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型等方法,对“全面二孩”背景下我国四大区域学前教育学位需求数量及其时空分布变化进行预测,并在考察区域学前教育资源存量的基础上,揭示“全面二孩”背景下区域学前教育资源的供需矛盾变化,从而提出相应的应对建议。研究表明:在“全面二孩”背景下,各区域适龄学前儿童数量均呈现出先扬后抑的倒“U”型曲线分布;但是,各区域之间学前教育资源供需具有一定的不平衡性,存在明显的“中部塌陷”倾向。因此,一方面,我们要深刻认识“全面二孩”政策所带来的适龄学前儿童入园压力,多渠道扩充办园资源总量;着力补齐中部地区资源供给短板,推动区域学前教育协调发展。另一方面,也要清醒地认识到“全面二孩”入园高峰过后适龄学前儿童数量回落所带来的潜在影响,采取必要的应急性干预政策,以保证学前教育稳定、可持续发展。

关键词: “全面二孩”政策, 区域学前教育, 学前教育资源, 灰色预测模型

Abstract:

By applying grey GM(1,1) forecasting model and other approaches, this article makes a prediction on the demand quantity of preschool education resources as well as the spatial and temporal distribution change in China’s four major regions under the background of “Universal Two-Child” policy. On the basis of the investigation of regional preschool education resources stock, this article indicates the conflict change of supply and demand of regional preschool education resources under the background of “Universal Two-Child” policy, so as to propose corresponding policy suggestion. Research shows that under the background of “Universal Two-Child” policy, the number of preschool children in the region presents an inverted “U” curve distribution, which goes up first and then drops down; but there is a certain imbalance between the supply and demand of preschool education resources among the four regions, existing a clear tendency of “central collapse”. Therefore, on the one hand, we have to realize the pressure brought to preschool children by the “Universal Two-Child” policy, and we should expand the school resources through various ways; short plate of the resource supply in central region should be made up, so as to promote the coordinated development of regional preschool education. On the other hand, we should also be clearly aware of the potential influence brought by the decline in the number of preschool children after the admission peak of “Universal Two-Child”, and adopt the necessary emergency intervention policies to ensure the stability and sustainable development of preschool education.

Key words: “Universal Two-Child” policy, regional preschool education, preschool education resources, grey forecast model

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